USD index - Will resistance here at 103.32 hold?

USD Index - 30 months Rate of Change

USD Index - At testing resistance at 103.32

USD Index - At testing resistance at 103.32 

I "bumped" into the Rate of Change (ROC) chart last night. The text in blue didn't really matter to me, but I noticed two things.

  1. The ROC is at levels, only seen a 30-40 years.
  2. When the ROC peaked at 42 in 1983 the decline in the ROC bottomed at -41.5 and the same relation was seen in 2001 to 2004.

So when the USD index finally peaks we should be looking at for the ROC to decline to the negative opposite number of the peak. That said, it's important to remember that just because, we are at extreme levels for the ROC it does't mean the top is in place, but that we should be aware that the rally from 2011 is an elite move. 

From an Elliott wave point of view wave 3 is currently testing the 161.8% extension target of wave 1 at 103.32. If a clear break above here is seen, then we should look for a continuation higher to the 200% extension target seen at 110.55. The minor count shows that we are in wave iii of [5] of 3, so after a correction in wave iv more upside towards 110.55 is likely in wave v of [5] of 3.

A continuation higher to 110.55 would fit the EUR/USD count nice as more downside is expected here towards 0.9580. 

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USD Index - Ready for a strong rally towards at least 100.00

USD Index - Ready for a strong rally towards at least 100.00

USD Index - Ready for a strong rally towards at least 100.00

USD Index - Ready for a strong rally towards at least 100.00 

The USD Index has been in an impulsive (five waves) uptrend since the May 2011 low at 72.20

Wave (iv) of this five wave uptrend completed in May at 91.92 and wave (v) higher towards 105.44 is now developing.

The first couple of waves higher in wave (v) is clearly impulsive in nature, but still lack upside acceleration, but that is about to end. An expanded flat correction as red wave (ii) indicates that upside acceleration towards at least 100.00 soon should be seen.

The first strong indication that red wave (iii) is developing will be a break above minor resistance at 95.10 and strong confirmation that red wave (iii) is unfolding is seen upon a break above resistance at 96.52.

Stay tuned for upside acceleration soon.

 

When a 1+ is highlighted in the right hand corner, more charts is available, in this chart-pack 2 charts can been seen. To see the other charts, click on the chart, which blows it up and in the center part at the bottom a control panel will be highlighted. Use the arrow to see the additional charts.

CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again

CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again

CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again

CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again 

On June 10 I posted an article saying the the ending diagonal resistance-line near 111.50 was about to break (you can see that post by clicking here). Well I was a wave too early and the ending diagonal resistance-line held for one final decline to 107.13. 

This final decline performed a classic under-throw of the ending diagonal support-line and quick return into the ending diagonal formation, which normally is a strong indication of the bottom being in place. To confirm that the ending diagonal is complete, we need a break above the ending diagonal resistance-line currently near 109.44 and above here will call for a rally towards the origin of the ending diagonal at 117.41, within half the time it took to build the ending diagonal. 

Long term, much higher levels will be expected. 

When a 1+ is highlighted in the right hand corner, more charts is available, in this chart-pack 4 charts can been seen. To see the other charts, click on the chart, which blows it up and in the center part at the bottom a control panel will be highlighted. Use the arrow to see the additional charts.

CHF/JPY - Is about to break above its ending diagonal resistance-line

CHF/JPY - Is about to break above its ending diagonal resistance-line

CHF/JPY - Is about to break above its ending diagonal resistance-line

CHF/JPY - Is about to break above its ending diagonal resistance-line 

I normally don't look at this pair, but when I saw that it has the same ending diagonal pattern as EUR/JPY I became interested. As you can compared to EUR/JPY ending diagonal, the ending diagonal here is almost about to break the resistance-line and when that happens a rally back to the origin of the ending diagonal at 117.42 should be seen, within half the time it took to build, which will be within one and half months. 

The ending diagonal resistance-line is currently sitting near 111.50 and a break above here confirms the rally back to 117.42 and above. 

The long term picture calls for a much higher rally than the 117.42 and actually calls for rally that ultimately will break above 138.92 top. 

EUR/NZD - A break above 1.6715 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 1.8420 has begun

EUR/NZD - A break above 1.6715 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 1.8420 has begun

EUR/NZD - A break above 1.6715 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 1.8420 has begun 

After the resistance-line from the 1.7222 high was broken in early May prices has more or less been glued to this line, but now acting as support. 

However, the minor consolidation looks as if it's coming to an end and a break above minor resistance at 1.6715 will be the first indication that the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.8420 is developing. 

On the way higher the former high at 1.7222 of cause will act as resistance, but it should just be a matter of time before this resistance is taken out too for the continuation higher towards 1.8420 and above. 

GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

This is one of the currency pairs I look at from time to time. I have been tracking it more closely lately as we where getting closer to a long term bottom. This bottom was confirmed yesterday with the break above a minor ending diagonal resistance-line (not shown on the chart above). With that break a quick return to the origin of the ending diagonal at 2.1222 is in the cards, but longer term, we should a much stronger rally the ultimately should break above the 2.5000 high seen in August 2015.

Short term support is seen near 2.0670 and again at 2.0620 and the later should be able to protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 2.1222.  

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Thomas
2014-08-11
Sublime Counts!
Duane
2014-05-26
Great job this week!! Wish that I had more capital to capitalize on all of your great calls! The ones that I have managed to catch have been extremely profitable. I really appreciate you sharing you v...
JT
2014-06-23
Its been a pleasure over the years I have been following you and even better as a member the education you provide in my view is invaluable you can read books as I have but to see how you evolve your ...