USD Index - Ideally one final rally will be seen

USD Index - Ideally one final rally will be seen

USD Index ideally we will see one final rally higher to 89.36 

We have tracked the rally in the USD Index almost to perfection and we will be looking for the final rally higher to the ideal target at 89.36 to end wave i of 3 and set the stage for a correction in wave ii of 3 towards the bottom of wave (iv) at 84.49 before the next rally higher in wave iii of 3, which normally is the most powerful rally in a five wave sequence.

Only a direct break below support at 86.87 will indicate, that the top already is in place for the correction towards 84.49.

USD Index - Long term uptrend is firmly in place

 

USD Index - Correcting before higher to 88.44

USD Index - Correcting before higher to 88.44

USD Index correcting before higher to 88.44 

The picture for the USD Index is more clear than the EUR/USD count. We ended wave iii of 5 at 88.19 and are correting wave (iii) towards 86.88 (we will likely see a bottom of wave iv just above 86.88) before the final rally higher towards at least 88.44 and more likely higher to 89.37, where wave v will be 61.8% of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave (i) to the top of wave (iii) and added to the bottom of wave (iv).

Once the top of wave (v) is in place, we should be looking for a correction towards the bottom of wave (iv) of one lessor degree at 84.49 and maybe even lower, but the first target to look for, will be the 48.49 target. 

USD/MXN - Thrust out of a huge triangle

USD/MXN - Thrust out of a huge triangle

USD/MXN - Impulsive rally of the triangle wave E low

USD/MXN thrust out of a huge triangle 

This cross has just confirmed a thrust out of an almost 5 year triangle. The break above the top of wave D at 13.60 indicates that the triangle ended at 12.82 and a strong impulsive wave [5] should now be seen. Ultimately wave [5] should break above the top of wave [3] at 15.559, so we have a long way to go before wave [5] is over.

Zooming in on the 4 hourly chart, we can see, that the rally of the 12.82 low has impulsive characters and I expect to see a rally higher to 14.00 to end the first impulsive wave. After a correction lower to 13.40 the next impulsive rally should be expected.  

USD/SGD - In a triangle consolidation before higher to 1.3000

USD/SGD - In a new long term uptrend

USD/SGD - Cosolidating within a triangle before higher to 1.3000

USD/SGD Consolidating within a small triangle before higher to 1.3000 

If we start with the long term picture, we can see, that a hugh B-wave triangle terminated in July 2014 and impulsive rally in wave C is developing. Zooming in on the 4 hourly chart, we can see, that the first impulsive rally of the July low at 1.2356 is developing. We are currently in wave (iv), which has become a triangle and once this triangle is over, we should see wave (v) higher to 1.3000 to end the first five wave rally and should expect a small correction back towards 1.2735 and maybe slightly closer to 1.2670 before the next impulsive rally higher. This next impulsive rally will likely be an extended wave higher to at least 1.3750. 

 

USD/INR - Inverse S/H/S bottom building

USD/INR - Invers S/H/S bottom is building

USD/INR an Inverse S/H/S bottom is building 

I'm still looking for acceleration higher towards 63.49 and higher to 65.17, but we need to allow for the right shoulder to finish completely before the expected acceleration higher will take place.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally since the late May low at 58.22 has developed nicely into a series of waves one's and two's. Once this phase of one's and two's is over, we should see a strong impulsive rally in wave three, with the first upside target being 63.49, but longer term even the August 2013 top at 69.22 should be exceeded.

Short term support will be found at 63.14, which ideally will protect the downside for the rally above the neckline resistance at 62.01, but only a break below support at 60.64 will be of concern.  

NZD/JPY - Triple top triggered

NZD/JPY - Triple top triggered

NZD/JPY triple top triggered 

A major correction has unfolded in this cross since early February 2009. With the break below support at 85.69 a triple top has been triggered and we should see downside pressure mount for a test of support at 81.37 and strong support at 74.42 a break below the later will confirm a long term change in the trend and a new decline to below the ending point of wave A at 44.21.

We are of course talking many month before this low is broken, but I do expect a break below 44.21 for a continuation lower to 36.89.

Short term I'm looking for resistance at 85.69 and at 86.07, which ideally will protect the upside, but even if resistance at 86.07 should be broken it will likely only be able to produce a rally towards 86.55 before the downside pressure will take over again. 

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Ananyavrat
2016-06-24
Hi Surfer,

Super calls !! And analysis.

Bravo for your brexit call !!
Whats next?

Ull need to update all indices!

Ananyavrat
Duane
2014-05-26
Great job this week!! Wish that I had more capital to capitalize on all of your great calls! The ones that I have managed to catch have been extremely profitable. I really appreciate you sharing you v...
Duane
2014-08-29
Hey EWS,

Great work on the GBPCAD and the NZDCAD. These are the type of opportunities that I am looking for, monthly turns caught with daily or hourly entries. Easy money!!

Duane