GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

GBP/NZD - Bottom in place for the next huge rally

This is one of the currency pairs I look at from time to time. I have been tracking it more closely lately as we where getting closer to a long term bottom. This bottom was confirmed yesterday with the break above a minor ending diagonal resistance-line (not shown on the chart above). With that break a quick return to the origin of the ending diagonal at 2.1222 is in the cards, but longer term, we should a much stronger rally the ultimately should break above the 2.5000 high seen in August 2015.

Short term support is seen near 2.0670 and again at 2.0620 and the later should be able to protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 2.1222.  

USD/INR - A huge inverse S/H/S bottom has been triggered

USD/INR - A huge inverse S/H/S bottom has been triggered

USD/INR a huge inverse S/H/S bottom has been triggered 

Please see my posts from August 20 - 2014 here and from October 7 - 2014 here first. 

Today the neckline of a huge inverse S/H/S bottom was triggered calling for a rally to 70.18, but this rally could easily become much larger and even turn into something very ugly if a collapse of the Far East currencies is brewing.

From an Elliott Wave perspective a series of waves one's and two's has been unfolding since the May 22 - 2014 low at 58.20 and therefore a series of wave three's and four's now should be expected, with much more upside to come. 

NZD/JPY - Correction over at 91.12. Look for acceleration lower

NZD/JPY - Wave ii ended at 91.12. Look for acceleration lower in wave iii towards 74.88

NZD/JPY - Break below the support-line adds confidence that a top is in place at 91.12

NZD/JPY - Five wave decline from 91.12 also adds confidence that the top is in place at 91.12

NZD/JPY top in place for wave ii at 91.12 

The correction in wave ii stopped exactly at the 70.7% corrective target at 91.12. The 70.7% corrective target is not a Fibonacci target, but in the currency world this target is seen tested so many times, that one always should be aware of it.

The decline seen from the 91.12 high, clearly looks impulsive in character (see the 15 minute chart). The break below support-line from 86.06 is a second indication that wave ii is over and wave iii lower is taking over. The first target for wave iii is found at the 161.8% extension of wave i at 74.88, so we are only in the very beginning of a larger decline, that's expected to take us down to something like the 40 handle over the coming weeks and months. 

Looking at the NZD crosses they seems to align nicely and all pointing lower for the NZD. Even AUD/NZD seems to have found a long term bottom and, this means that NZD will lead the next decline. Maybe just maybe the reason for this weakness in the NZD should be found abroad (read China). China could be in for quite a decline if the real estate bubble finally is bursted and the consequeses is felt throughout the entire Chinese economy. The Chinese economy has walked on an eged for years, but maybe the the Chinese government is loosing the balance... Only time will show.  

Happy New Year

Happy New Year 2015

I wish you all a Happy and Prosperous New Year


Kind regards


USD/SGD - Correcting towards at least 1.2815

USD/SGD - Is correcting towards at least 1.2815

USD/SGD is correcting towards at least 1.2815 

Wave 1 ended at 1.3099 and we are currently in wave 2 towards at least 1.2815 a more normal target would be in the range from 1.2670 - 1.2728 from where I expect wave 3 to take off again.

That said, we have to be aware, that second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave. 

GBP/NZD - Bottom likely in place at 1.9616

GBP/NZD - Important long term bottom likely in place at 1.9616

GBP/NZD - Importnat long term bottom likely in place at 1.9616

GBP/NZD an important long term bottom is likely in place at 1.9616 

The correction in red wave ii from 2.1055 likely ended at 1.9616. This correction in red wave ii has been a very deep, but simple zig-zag in line with the other corrections that has been seen in the second wave since the long term low at 1.7707.

I will now be looking for a break above 2.0000 to confirm that we did indeed see an important bottom with the test of 1.9616 and a new strong rally higher to 2.1055 and above here will confirm a continuation higher in red wave iii towards at least 2.3400.

At no point can a break below the origin of red wave i at 1.9363 be accepted, as that would invalidate this bullish count and would call for a decline to strong support at 1.8860.   

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