Nifty 50 - Long term top in place?

Nifty 50 why a long term top could be in place at 7,808.85?

I have been looking for a long term top for the last couple of months now. So I think it would be appropriate to show, why I think that a long term top could be in place, with the test of 7,808.85.

The upper chart shows the price action back to 1998. As you can see I have counted the rally from the low of 804.30 to 7,808.85 as a complete five wave rally.

Wave 1 rallied from 804.30 to 1,818.15

Wave 2 decline from 1,818.15 to 849.95 - This decline corrected 95% of wave 1

Wave 3 rallied from 849.95 to 6,357.10 - A very power and extended rally where wave 3 became 538.1% larger than wave 1

Wave 4 decline from 6,357.10 to 2,252.75 - Another very deep correction of slightly more than 70.7% of wave 3

Wave 5 rallied from 2,252.75 to 7,808.75 -  This rally became almost exactly 100% the length of the distance travelled in 1 - 3.

Wave 5 would have been exactly 100% of the distance travelled from the beginning of wave 1 to the end of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4 at 7,805.55, that is just 3.20 points off.

If we zoom in on the final part of wave 5 and look at the sub waves, we can see that red wave i and iv overlaps, that leave us with only one possible formation the expanding ending diagonal. Looking at the internal relationships between these waves, at 7,815.81 red wave v would be 161.8% of the distance travelled from the start of red wave i at 4,531.15 to the end of red wave iii at 6,198.00, just 7.06 points of the final high seen till now.

To sum it up, then we have seen a top at 7,808.75 within the possible target-area between 7,805.55 - 7,815.81.

Looking at the lower chart, we can see, that last week produced a bearish engulfing candle. The last time we saw a bearish engulfing candle was at the wave iii top in November 2011, which produced a correction in wave iv of more than a year. I'm actually looking for a bigger correction as I think we are about to correct the entire rally from 1998, but even if this turns out to be wrong, we should at least expect a correction of a year or more, if the bearish engulfing is confirmed by yet another bearish candle this week.      

Nifty 50 - Weekly bearish engulfing see last week

Great call on nat gas

Just wanted to drop you a note to say great call on nat gas as it held 2.67

Great job.

Hey EWS,

Great work on the GBPCAD and the NZDCAD. These are the type of opportunities that I am looking for, monthly turns caught with daily or hourly entries. Easy money!!

Your work is exceptional and glad I found you.