AUD/NZD - Long term support from 1995 tested

AUD/NZD - Five wave decline from 1.3794

AUD/NZD - Five wave decline from 1.0283

AUD/NZD long term bottom in place at 1.0283? 

We have seen a test of the long term support going back to July 1995 near 1.03 and both the monthly MACD and the RSI indicator displays positive divergence indicating the likelyhood of an important bottom being nearby. 

Zooming in on the weekly chart, we can see a clear five wave decline from 1.3794 to 1.0283 also indicating a bottom being nearby if not already in place. The MSCD and the RSI is also displaying positive divergence, again indicating a possible bottom being in place.

Zooming in further to the 4-hourly chart, we can count a five wave decline from the 1.1304 high of wave iv and again positive divergence is present in both the MACD and the RSI indicator all calling for a bottom being in place at 1.0283.

So what's needed from here? A five wave rally of the 1.0283 low would indicate that a long term bottom is in place. A break above resistance at 1.0399 (the top of wave iv of (v)) would be a indication of the bottom being in place and better yet a break above the top of wave (iv) at 1.0477 will be an even strong indication of a bottom being in place for a multi month if not multi year rally.  

 

Darryl
2014-09-14
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2014-06-23
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2014-05-28
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