GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

 

 

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher 

Cable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. 

From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows, that an expanded flat B-wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally in wave C took over. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. 

The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. 

If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see, that wave 2 already has completed wave A and B and wave C lower towards the 1.2780 - 1.2822 is developing. Once wave C and 2 completes near the support cluster a strong rally will be expected in wave 3.  

GBP/USD - Breaking support near 1.4485 calls for a decline to 1.4024

GBP/USD - Breaking support near 1.4485 calls for a decline to 1.4024

GBP/USD - Breaking support near 1.4485 calls for a decline to 1.4024 

The break below support near 1.4485 confirms that an impulsive decline from 1.4664 has been seen and calls for more downside pressure to 1.4024 and lower for the coming days/weeks. 

Short term, the downside momentum will stay intact as long as minor resistance at 1.4485 is able to hold. The next minor downside target to look for is seen at 1.4439 and below here 1.4371. 

A break above minor resistance at 1.4485 will call for a correction towards 1.4594 before lower again. 

Longer term, much lower levels should be seen, with an ultimate break below 1.3834 calling for a continuation lower to 1.3344.  

Become a registered member of EWS, and gain access to all the in depth analyzes.

Thomas
2014-08-11
Sublime Counts!
Duane
2014-05-26
Great job this week!! Wish that I had more capital to capitalize on all of your great calls! The ones that I have managed to catch have been extremely profitable. I really appreciate you sharing you v...
JT
2014-06-23
Its been a pleasure over the years I have been following you and even better as a member the education you provide in my view is invaluable you can read books as I have but to see how you evolve your ...