USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017

USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017

USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017 

We have been pretty much on top of USD/JPY since it bottomed in late 2011. Lately, I have been looking at some different things in regard to the long term picture and observed that a fixed cycle was in work. This cycle is 47 weeks long and shifts between a "up" and a "down/sideways" period. the last "down/sideways" period terminate at the exact low in the first week of May and if this cycle continues to work like it has for the last 4½ years, then we will be in an "up" cycle going forward to March 2017. This also fits the Elliott wave count perfectly as it calls for renewed upside pressure towards and above the top at 125.86 in the coming months.

To confirm that a long term bottom is in place, we need a break above resistance at 111.88, but when it breaks there should be no doubt about the long term direction.  

USD/JPY - The first five wave rally from 75.56 is over at 125.86

USD/JPY - Long term resistance-line hit at 125.86

USD/JPY - Five wave rally from 75.56 over at 125.86

USD/JPY - Five wave rally from 118.47 in place for wave v of 5

USD/JPY - Corrective decline from 125.86 in three waves for now.

USD/JPY - First impulsive rally from 75.56 over at 125.86 

Because of low volatility in the currency market, I will look at the longer term picture for some of the major currency crosses. The first cross will be USD/JPY as it has hit a long term resistance-line. We have also see a small break above the top of wave [4] and finally a five wave rally cn be counted from the 75.56 low, all indicating that a larger correction could be developing. What kind of correction, we should be looking for is not yet clear, but the first part of the decline from 125.86 has been in three waves indicating that some kind of flat correction is unfolding, which ultimately will call for a retest of 125.86 and maybe even a move slightly above, if an expanded flat correction is unfolding.

As a five wave rally can be counted from 75.56, we should be looking for a quite substancial correction and the first target, we normally should be looking for is wave 4 of one lessor degree, which is found at 101.06, which also marks the 50% corrective target of the rally from 75.56 to 125.86.

As long as minor resistance near 124.00 and more importantly resistance at 124.45 protects the upside, I will be looking for a continuation lower to 121.56 and maybe even slightly lower 120.32, before a move back to near 125.86 is expected. 

Remember, corrections can look like a sure thing one day and somting completely different the next, especially when looking at the shorter time-frame. 

USD/JPY - Topped or is a final new high needed?

USD/JPY - Topped or is one final new high needed?

USD/JPY - Ending diagonal to a new high for the year

USD/JPY has it topped or is a final new high needed?

The break below 119.19 indicated that a top could be in place at 122.02 and a correction of the entire rally since the 75.56 low is developing. That said, we have to acknowledge that one impulsive structure does allow for overlapping waves and that’s the ending diagonal. If this alternate count is unfolding, we still need one final rally to new highs just above the 122.02 high and likely not above 123.52 before the major correction takes over. 

To confirm the top is already in place a break below support at 118.30 and more importantly a break below 115.83 is needed. 

 

USD/JPY - Wave four is over at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.06

USD/JPY - Wave iv ended at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.06

USD/JPY wave iv ended at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.06 

With an almost perfect test of the 38.2% corrective target of wave iii at 106.81 and the bottom of blue wave iv of one lessor degree, the odds for wave iv being over are very higher and I will now be looking for a break above 107.50 to confirm the bottom of wave iv for a rally to at least 111.25 in wave v and possibly even higher to 112.31.

Short term only a break below 106.76 will delay the expected upside rally in wave v.

 

Become a registered member of EWS, and gain access to all the in depth analyzes.

Thomas
2014-08-11
Sublime Counts!
JT
2014-06-23
Its been a pleasure over the years I have been following you and even better as a member the education you provide in my view is invaluable you can read books as I have but to see how you evolve your ...
Ananyavrat
2016-06-24
Hi Surfer,

Super calls !! And analysis.

Bravo for your brexit call !!
Whats next?

Ull need to update all indices!

Ananyavrat