Crude Oil - Low expected near 38.78

Crude Oil - Low expected near 38.78

WTI Crude Oil - Low expected near 38.78 
 
The rally from the mid-February low at 26.06 was in five waves (impulsive) indicating that at least an zig-zag (A-B-C) rally should be expected. 
 
Wave A rallied in five waves from 26.06 to 51.67 and has been followed by a corrective decline (double zig-zag correction). This double zig-zag correction is now close to completion and is expected to complete near the 50% corrective target at 38.78 from where a new impulsive rally towards at least 62.58 is expected. 
 
The first strong indication of a bottom being in place, will be a break above minor resistance at 41.83, while a break above 43.74 will confirm the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally is developing. 

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible  

I have been calling for a rally towards 50.98 as the ideal target for a while now. Yesterday, we saw a test of the 50.16 target (the high was seen at 50.20). As long as minor support at 48.66 is able to protect the downside, we could still see a continuation higher to the ideal 50.98 target, but from here or upon a direct break below support at 48.66 a corrective decline towards 42.50 should be expected. 

I still see and hear quite a few calling for a new decline to below 26.06, but my long term count does not support a new low below 26.06. To the contrary my long term count calls for much more upside to be seen. 

My long term cycles called for a bottom to be seen around January 18 and just two weeks after crude oil finally bottomed at 26.06. With the low in place, my next cycle top should be seen next week, but it should only cause a minor top and set the stage for a minor correction before moving higher again for many weeks/months, working its way higher to 62.58 and 80.00 as the next major upside targets. 

When a 1+ is highlighted in the right hand corner, more charts is available, in this chart-pack 3 charts can been seen. To see the other chart, click on the chart, which blows it up and in the center part at the bottom a control panel will be highlighted. Use the arrow to see the additional chart. 

Crude Oil - Ideally a test of the 50.16 - 50.98 resistance area will be seen before a minor correction set in

Crude Oil - Ideally a test of the 50.16 - 50.98 resistance area will be seen before a minor correction set in

Crude Oil - Ideally a test of the 50.16 - 50.98 resistance area will be seen before a minor correction set in

Crude Oil - Long term much more upside is expected

Crude Oil - Ideally a test of the 50.16 - 50.98 resistance area will be seen before a minor correction set in

It has been pure pleasure to track crude oil up from the 26.06 low. Ideally a little more upside closer to the 50.16 - 50.98 resistance area will be seen, before a correction towards 43.03 sets in. Should the correction from the 50.16 - 50.98 area move below support at 41.90, the count will be changed from wave [iii] to a series of wave s one's and two's indicating an even more bullish configuration for the longer term picture. 

Looking at the longer term picture, much more upside is expected in the weeks and months ahead, with the next major upside target seen at 62.58.

When a 1+ is highlighted in the right hand corner, more charts is available in this chart-pack 3 charts can been seen. To see the other charts, click on the chart, which blows it up and in the center part at the bottom a control panel will be highlighted. Use the arrow to see the additional charts.       

Crude Oil - Testing important resistance at 34.81

Crude Oil - Testing important resistance at 34.81

Crude Oil - Testing important resistance at 34.81 

Important resistance at 34.81 is still protecting the rally of the 26.06 low. I continue to favor a break above this important resistance to confirm that an important bottom was seen at the 26.06 low and a rally higher to at least 50.92 is developing. 

As long as resistance at 34.81 is able to protect the upside, we must accept more consolidation in the 32.29 - 34.81 area before the bulls has gathered enough force to puch above this resistance for a rally higher. The risk to the bulls is a break below important support at 30.56 that will indicate that the bears still has the upper hand. 

The majority of investors, analytics and traders continue to look for lower prices, which got me think about the situation back from 2008, where "Peak Oil" ruled and prices would continue higher to USD 200 a barrel and possibly even higher. I must admit that nobody has ever used the term "Plunge Oil", but it's kind of the same just the invers direction. I still hear numbers like USD 10 or 15 pr. barrel mention. So within 8 years the sentiment has swung from oil wells running dry to too much oil being produced keeping the price of oil continuing lower... forever?

As absured as prices continuing into the skies is the arguments of prices continuing lower. I can't say for sure, at least not yet, the oil has bottomed, but when everybody knows the direction of the oil prices and even worse, when everybody knows the target, it's time to shift side from the bear-camp to the bull-camp as this is where the real opportunity is. (Please see my post from February 12 by clicking here). 

Crude Oil - Wave iii in place at 56.41?

Crude Oil - Low in place at 56.41?

Crude Oil low in place at 56.41? 

Is the relentless decline in wave iii finally over at 56.41? It could well be the case. At 56.61 light blue wave v was 61.8% the length of the distance traveled from the top of light blue wave i to the bottom of light blue wave iii and 61.8% of that distance subtracted from the top of light blue wave iv gave us a target of 56.61 and with a low at 56.41 I would say, that is a perfect hit.

However, to confirm that a bottom is in place, we need first a break above minor resistance at 59.18 and more importantly a break above resistance at 64.17 is needed, but if/when that break is seen a correction towards the top of of wave iv at 77.81 should be seen. But for now, we should be looking for a break above minor resistance at 59.18.  

Today's Free Elliott Wave Analysis: Crude Oil - Finally breaks lower

Crude Oil - Finally breaks lowerCrude Oil - Finally breaks lower

Crude Oil finally breaks lower

The downside break we have been looking for over the last couple of weeks finally materialized yesterday. Not alone did we see a break below minor support at 96.57 on the 8 hourly chart, but more importantly the break below 96.57 also meant we saw a clear break below the long term support-line back from January 2009 on the weekly chart, which will add considerably downside side pressure here.

Short term I will be looking for a test of 93.57 as the first possible target of wave (v) and I of 3, but if 93.57 is broken too, then we should be looking for an extension in wave (v) lower to 90.75. It's not uncommon for commodities, that the fifth wave extends.

However, longer term we should see an even strong decline towards in wave 3 towards at least 86.80 and possibly even deeper towards 74.02, where wave 3 will be 161.8% of wave 1 and at the same time meet the 50% corrective target of the rally from 33.22 to 114.81.  

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Hani
2014-06-06
I have been a fan of you blog for several years!
I am so impressed at your renewal.
Elliott wave analysis is so difficult to me, but so interesting and useful.

Thank you
Hani
Tommy
2015-02-26
Great call on nat gas

Just wanted to drop you a note to say great call on nat gas as it held 2.67

Great job.

Tommy
Ananyavrat
2016-06-24
Hi Surfer,

Super calls !! And analysis.

Bravo for your brexit call !!
Whats next?

Ull need to update all indices!

Ananyavrat