Nifty 50 why a long term top could be in place at 7,808.85?
I have been looking for a long term top for the last couple of months now. So I think it would be appropriate to show, why I think that a long term top could be in place, with the test of 7,808.85.
The upper chart shows the price action back to 1998. As you can see I have counted the rally from the low of 804.30 to 7,808.85 as a complete five wave rally.
Wave 1 rallied from 804.30 to 1,818.15
Wave 2 decline from 1,818.15 to 849.95 - This decline corrected 95% of wave 1
Wave 3 rallied from 849.95 to 6,357.10 - A very power and extended rally where wave 3 became 538.1% larger than wave 1
Wave 4 decline from 6,357.10 to 2,252.75 - Another very deep correction of slightly more than 70.7% of wave 3
Wave 5 rallied from 2,252.75 to 7,808.75 - This rally became almost exactly 100% the length of the distance travelled in 1 - 3.
Wave 5 would have been exactly 100% of the distance travelled from the beginning of wave 1 to the end of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4 at 7,805.55, that is just 3.20 points off.
If we zoom in on the final part of wave 5 and look at the sub waves, we can see that red wave i and iv overlaps, that leave us with only one possible formation the expanding ending diagonal. Looking at the internal relationships between these waves, at 7,815.81 red wave v would be 161.8% of the distance travelled from the start of red wave i at 4,531.15 to the end of red wave iii at 6,198.00, just 7.06 points of the final high seen till now.
To sum it up, then we have seen a top at 7,808.75 within the possible target-area between 7,805.55 - 7,815.81.
Looking at the lower chart, we can see, that last week produced a bearish engulfing candle. The last time we saw a bearish engulfing candle was at the wave iii top in November 2011, which produced a correction in wave iv of more than a year. I'm actually looking for a bigger correction as I think we are about to correct the entire rally from 1998, but even if this turns out to be wrong, we should at least expect a correction of a year or more, if the bearish engulfing is confirmed by yet another bearish candle this week.
Published on 15 July 2014