EUR/CAD Look for downside acceleration soon

After the top at 1.5586 we have seen an impulsive decline in red wave i to 1.4997, this was followed by a 50% correction of red wave i in red wave ii and I'm now looking for downside acceleration towards 1.4340 in red wave iii. Short term a break below 1.4997 will add considerable downside pressure. This should only be the start of a much bigger decline towards strong long term support at 1.2185 (see the long term count).

Crude Oil Minor Resistance Line Broken

Wave ii is in place and wave iii ready to take over for a rally above minor resistance at 102.35 and more importantly a break above 104.99 for a continuation higher to 110.42. Only a break below support at 98.85 invalidates the bullish count (see the long term alternate count for crude oil in the member area).

Gold Short Term Count

Since late June 2013 a major wave four triangle has been developing. Wave D of the triangle ended at 1.368 and we are currently in wave E, which ideally will terminate near 1,374, but E waves can be sub-normal therefore we will have to follow it closely to pinpoint the end of wave E. Once wave E is over look for a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside for a decline to 1,002.65 as the ideal target.

Facebook - Zig-zag correction unfolding

Has just ended wave B of a zig-zag correction from 72.71 and wave C should now take us lower towards the equality target between wave C and A at 47.55. A break below support at 55.88 confirms the 47.55 target.

Have a great weekend

EWS

GBP/AUD Long and Medium Term Counts

Since the March 2013 low at 1.4375 we have seen a very strong rally to 1.7483, which marks wave 1 and wave 2 was a shallow decline to 1.6641 barely correcting 23.6% of wave 1. This is a sign of underlying strength and a sign that wave 1 extended. When wave 1 extends normally the top of wave 5 will come in at distance traveled in wave 1 added to the bottom of wave 2, which in this case will call for wave 5 at 1.9749. However a much more bullish count could be unfolding, which only had wave (i) of 3 from 1.6641 to 1.9186 and wave (ii) corrected a little more than 50% of wave (i) and wave (iii) higher is now unfolding towards at least 2.1704 and possibly higher. However, time will have to show, which count is the correct one.

Starbucks Short Term Count

Since the 82.49 high a zig-zag correction is developing. This correction is not only correcting the rally from 43.04, but the entire rally from the 7.06 low in November 2008 (see the long term count in the member area). This will call for a prolonged correction both time and price wise. However, for now we have reached the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 43.04 to 82.49, but after a minor rally towards the 73.31 - 74.54 area I will be looking for renewed downside pressure towards at least 63.73 and likely even lower towards 57.08.  

EUR/GBP Short term count - Limited downside potential

The complex double zig-zag correction from 0.8400 should be close to an important bottom. As long as minor resistance at 0.8220 and more importantly as long as resistance at 0.8247 protects the upside, wave 2 could move a little lower towards 0.8186, but the potential downside risk from here is limited. Remember that Elliott's rule no. one says, that wave 2 isn't allowed to break below the starting point of wave 1, which in this case is at 0.8156.

However, a break above 0.8220 and more importantly a break above 0.8247 will open up the upside potential to 0.8600 and maybe even higher as wave 3 develops making the upside potential very interesting from here.

EUR/GBP - Short term count

Red wave ii ended slightly lower than the expected 0.8251 (the low has been 0.8246). I'm now looking for a break above the small reflex point at 0.8277 as the first good indication that red wave iii is unfolding for a rally towards 0.8365 and maybe even higher.

Remember rule no. 1 of the Elliott Wave Principle, that says that wave two is not allowed to break below the starting point of wave one, which in the smaller degree count is at 0.8243, while in the larger degree count is at 0.8154.

EUR/GBP - Red wave ii turned into an expanded flat correction (wave "b" ended above the starting point of wave "a" and wave "c" ended below the ending point of wave "a"). A bottom could be found any time now for a powerful rally in red wave iii higher towards 0.8365. However, if the starting point of red wave i at 0.8243 is broken, the expected upside rally will be delay for a move closer to 0.8227 before wave 2 finally comes to an end.

Have a nice weekend.